Sabermetrics Required Reading – Jeff Sagarin MLB Ratings

You want to win your fantasy baseball league and tell me you’ve never heard of Jeff Sagarin? Well, listen: Sagarin’s ravings are part of the holy grail of sabermetry. Sagrin’s RPG metric for hitters calculates the runs per game generated by a particular player if there is a full roster made up of that individual. For pitchers, the metric it calculates is called the expected ERA.

Predicted effectiveness is calculated by normalizing a launcher’s current statistics to a model generated from a 1946-1999 launch data set. Both the RPG rating and the predicted ERA are accepted statistical measures used by both baseball talent screeners and betting odds makers.

The RPG metric is derived using the Markov chain algorithm, which is a rigorous statistical methodology. The final RPG score for hitters takes into account runs scored, hits, batting average, RBIs, and stolen bases. The predicted effectiveness metric takes into account innings thrown, effectiveness, wins, saves, as well as a few other pitching metrics.

At the end of the day, the role play or expected effectiveness of a player can be used as a direct comparison between players and is an excellent tool for evaluating trades. Sagrarin’s ratings can be found at USAToday.com ([http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/alp09.htm]).

An interesting approach to evaluating trades and comparing players is to combine Sagarin’s ratings with the BABIP statistic. Sagarin’s rating gives a good idea of ​​the player’s current worth, while BABIP can be used as an indicator of future performance. Visit BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com to learn more about BABIP.