Free NFL Football Pick (Week 12)

Two of the most surprising teams in NFL betting meet this Sunday in Jacksonville when the Jaguars host the Oakland Raiders. Oddsmakers have opened the Jags as 4.5-point home favorites.

Oakland enters Week 14 with an SU record of 6-6 and has an identical record in the betting window. They are .500 for the first time this late in the season since their 2002 Super Bowl season. The Raiders pull off one of the most shocking results on the entire Week 13 NFL betting card when they defeated San Diego as losers of 13 points, 28-13.

Jacksonville is the surprise leader of the AFC South at 7-5. In essence, they have a two-game lead in the division over the Indianapolis Colts, whom they beat with a last-second field goal earlier in the season. The Jaguars also won last week, beating Tennessee on the road, 17-6, as three-point road underdogs. For years this was a team to stay away from the betting window. However, they are starting to make the bookmakers pay lately by covering the point spread in each of their last five games. Keep in mind that Jacksonville still isn’t a good team to bet on when they’re favorites, particularly when they’re amassing 3.5-9.5 points, as they’re only 1-8 ATS in that role over the past three seasons.

That said, this could be a good opportunity to put up points with Jacksonville. There is an excellent NFL betting system that says the Jaguars are the play here. Since 1983, NFL road underdogs who won the previous week by 14 or more points as underdogs are just 63-112 ATS. Oakland, themselves, is 12-25 ATS from an SU dog win. Another reason to play the Raiders is the start time of this game. The Silver and Black are simply not good in early games (10am PT). Already this season, they’ve lost Tennessee and Pittsburgh by a combined 73-16, losing the point spread by a combined 43.5 points.

Our free NFL pick for the week is taking the Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) over the Oakland Raiders.