Football betting: the Footyforecast method

Soccer Betting is a series of articles describing some well-known and well-used statistical techniques that will help the soccer bettor make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. Yet together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works, giving you enough information so that you can go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information on where you can already find websites that use this technique to understand their weekly football betting tips.

The statistical methods outlined in this set of articles should help you make a better decision about the match or matches you are betting on.

In this article we will describe the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be tied, leaving you with a shorter list of matches to choose your 8 out of 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the website. Original from Footyforecast (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the simple sequence method described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules …

For each team, solve the following: 1. Calculate the total number of points scored in the last N games. 2. Calculate the maximum number of possible points for the last N games. 3. Divide the total number of points scored by the maximum available and multiply by 100. 4. Calculate the forecast value. In (1) and (2) above, N games could be all home games for the home team and all away games for the away team. Alternatively, N could be the last N games, including all home and away games of a team. The forecast value is calculated like this …

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for the home team from the last N games

POINTS OUT = number of points for the away team from the last N games

HOMEVAL = (START POINTS / (FORWIN POINTS * N)) * 100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) * 100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 – AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method, the value is compared to the following … 1. A forecast value of 50 = tie. 2. A value between 50 and 100 increases the chances of winning at home the closer to 100. 3. A value between 50 and 0 increases the chances of winning at home the closer to 0. There are some variables to consider: for example , the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or only at home for the home team and only away for the visiting team, to name just two. You may want to experiment with these values. By plotting the actual resulting draws against the forecast, it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any value between these thresholds is likely to be a tie. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example, a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean that any match between 41 and 59 can be a tie. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user, is it removes a lot of matches that won’t be ties, giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used when using an English pool plan.

Here’s a worked example …

The values ​​shown are the points earned by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent games; of course, you can choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham H4 = 3 (oldest match) H3 = 1 H2 = 1 H1 = 0 (most recent match) Leeds Utd A4 = 1 (oldest match) A3 = 3 A2 = 0 A1 = 3 (most recent match) Using only home matches for home team and only away matches for away team … FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42 FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59 FFPForcast = (42 + (100 – 59)) / 2 = 42 If our threshold values ​​are 40 and 60, then for this match the prediction is in the expected drawing region and in the lower end, meaning that if it is not a draw, the other most likely outcome would be an away win. This can be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookmakers will accept as a bet.

Now is your turn …

You can of course choose to use different values ​​than shown above, and by experimenting you may get better values ​​to use. You can also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You can choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to graph the actual results with the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the home win, draw and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills, you can go and create your own data spreadsheet or even write some software to get results and accessories and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you can get some free software that will already do it for you. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have provided these types of facilities since 1999. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a complete record is kept of how each method is performed in each game. In addition to how each council performed within their respective league, 1X2Monster also provides the leaderboards of how each league has performed to successfully predict game outcomes. Prediction Performance Leaderboards are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions and for general predictions and are invaluable tools for the soccer bettor in deciding where to target their predictions. of European soccer betting.

Here’s a list of all the articles in this series …

Soccer Betting – How to Make a Profit Soccer Betting – The Rateform Method Soccer Betting – The Footyforecast Method Soccer Betting – The Profit and Loss Method Soccer Betting – The Simple Sequence Method Soccer Betting – The Results Prediction Method Soccer Betting – The Superiority Method