Horse Racing: When Backing the Favourite, Think Outside the Box
The ordinary gambler believes most of what the television pros tell him. He listens to his comment and considers it the Gospel according to… whoever. If he wants to make money by endorsing or breeding horses, then he must start thinking for himself. Unless he is willing to do this: don’t play at the racetrack, don’t go to a bookie’s office, don’t use Betfair, just go home.
Standard thinking is what sheeps most of the racing public who enjoys betting on the nags. They read the newspapers, listen to whistleblowers, follow TV commentary with the avid attention of a hungry cat, and never earn a penny worth talking about.
To win you must think outside the box. You have to do what the other sheep are not doing. When you start to think differently about how you bet, you’ll start to think differently about the race as you look at form. This is good, because when you start to think differently about the format of the race, you open yourself up to possibilities that the rest of the betting public cannot and will never see, much less take advantage of.
Have you ever seen a race where the favorite seemed to have all the boxes checked but the bets just didn’t add up? He moved in while another horse was apparently being heavily backed. TV commentators mention that this horse is being endorsed in the market, start talking about its merits, and suddenly the price drops again and the race is on for thousands of punters across the country to push their crisp bucks into the betting counter before the price. it falls further or the race is cancelled.
I love those situations, as I usually feel quite the favorite and manage to keep my conceit to myself until I get home. You see, I don’t listen to what all these experts think. They rarely add anything of value to the research process and even when they do, it’s usually too late to use them. Remember this: TV commentators and newspaper whistleblowers work for a living; they are there to entertain you, to guide you through the events of the day. They are not there to provide you with winners.
When choosing your bets, use your head. If it looks like a horse is going to win, chances are it will. The key factor is whether you believe he will do it. Believe in your ability to choose well, to read the form, to read between the lines even when everyone else is screaming otherwise. Some of your best days will come when you back the favorite when everyone else says you can’t win, or better yet, when everyone is betting on the favorite and you’re sitting on that 10/1 chance. Now that is really beautiful.
Think outside the box and you will find a difference in your bank balance.